Context

Current attempts to improve our understanding of the greenhouse gas (GHG) impacts of indirect land use change (ILUC) focus on use of partial and general equilibrium economic modelling techniques. While these approaches may ultimately be the most effective solution to assessing ILUC impacts, current models have weaknesses that need to be addressed over time. An alternative approach to assessing ILUC is provided by descriptive-causal models. These models use cause and effect logic to describe the behaviour of a given system, based on observations of how the system functions. Crucially, these models provide a more transparent analysis which enables input and review from a broad range of stakeholders. Descriptive-causal models could be used to help increase understanding of ILUC and therefore improve economic models, or as a way of deriving fuel chain specific ILUC GHG emission factors (“ILUC factors”).

Objectives

The UK Department for Transport has commissioned E4tech to develop fuel chain specific ILUC factors using a descriptive-causal approach for the following fuel chains: bioethanol from wheat and sugarcane, biodiesel from palm oil, rapeseed oil and soybean oil. An objective of the project will be to demonstrate the validity of the approach. A crucial part of the project will be capturing the views and insights of a range of stakeholders who have an understanding of the systems involved in ILUC to ensure that the ILUC factors calculated are based on the best available scientific and economic evidence.