Task 1: Literature review

For this project to add value to the debate about ILUC it must build on existing research. It will therefore review relevant literature with a focus on identifying: strengths and weaknesses of both modelling approaches, proposed strategies for descriptive-causal modelling and evidence analysing the key system effects relevant to ILUC, including those management practices which can mitigate the risk of ILUC. Literature of all types will be reviewed, including both published and grey literature.

Timing for stakeholder input: The deadling for stakeholder input for the literature review has now passed.

Task 2: Methodology development

In order for the work to be transparent and replicable, it will be necessary to develop a generic methodology which sets out the steps required for descriptive-causal modelling. A generic methodology will be developed which addresses all the identified factors affecting the GHG emissions resulting from ILUC. The methodology will be designed to take into account qualitative or quantitative indicators reflecting the impact of management practices which influence the risk of ILUC (these project level factors could also be used to assess the risk of ILUC outside the context of the methodology). The methodology will be informed by the findings of the literature review and by input from stakeholders.

Timing for stakeholder input: The deadline for stakeholder input for the methodology development has now passed.

Task 3: ILUC factor calculation

The methodology developed in the previous task will be applied to develop ILUC factors for five biofuel chains. All modelling will be carried out using publicly available data sources (e.g. from FAO databases) and evidence submitted by stakeholders.

Timing for stakeholder input: The deadline for stakeholder input for all five chains has now passed.